Fig. 3

Bayesian structural time series model (using deseasonalized data). Time paths of the actual and predicted values are represented by the black and blue-dotted lines, respectively. The blue-shaded areas indicate 95% confidence intervals. The original panel measures the difference between actual and predicted values. The pointwise panel corresponds to the average impact of the exposure (i.e., COVID-19-associated public health measures), whereas the cumulative panel refers to the cumulative impact of the latter. ED, emergency department; MHR, mental health-related